Comments on: Clean Coal’s Failure To Launch http://www.sissenerwrites.com/clean-coal/clean-coals-failure-to-launch/ Commentary and analysis on climate, energy & power generation…...and living to write about it! Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:05:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: Morten Sissener http://www.sissenerwrites.com/clean-coal/clean-coals-failure-to-launch/comment-page-1/#comment-10 Morten Sissener Mon, 10 Aug 2009 00:33:15 +0000 http://www.sissenerwrites.com/?p=486#comment-10 Given the climbing price tag for new nuclear today, I'm very dubious about any variation on nuclear proving itself economically viable....notwithstanding the broader technical and national security rationale for building more nuclear. Short of a full court federal financial press for nuclear, don't count on much, if any, nuclear builds over the next 10 years. But then again, it does all come back to natural gas. The relatively new wild card being played is the "new" gas from oil shale and related horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. We're still early in the development of this so called "unconventional" gas resource but if it proves out and prices stay in the $5 range you can put new coal and new nukes on the back burner for the next 2+ decades. While gas will likely continue to be volatile, new domestic resources (enough for 50-60 yrs at current consumption rates) plus a growing international gas market (for import), will, I believe, keep a lid on the price levels needed to spur investment in new clear coal plants and/or nuclear. The unfortunate reality is the U.S. makes defacto long term energy policy decisions based mostly on short term economic factors. Agreeing on a true forward thinking national energy policy continues to be an elusive tough sell. Given the climbing price tag for new nuclear today, I’m very dubious about any variation on nuclear proving itself economically viable….notwithstanding the broader technical and national security rationale for building more nuclear. Short of a full court federal financial press for nuclear, don’t count on much, if any, nuclear builds over the next 10 years.

But then again, it does all come back to natural gas. The relatively new wild card being played is the “new” gas from oil shale and related horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. We’re still early in the development of this so called “unconventional” gas resource but if it proves out and prices stay in the $5 range you can put new coal and new nukes on the back burner for the next 2+ decades.

While gas will likely continue to be volatile, new domestic resources (enough for 50-60 yrs at current consumption rates) plus a growing international gas market (for import), will, I believe, keep a lid on the price levels needed to spur investment in new clear coal plants and/or nuclear.

The unfortunate reality is the U.S. makes defacto long term energy policy decisions based mostly on short term economic factors. Agreeing on a true forward thinking national energy policy continues to be an elusive tough sell.

]]> By: kellermfk http://www.sissenerwrites.com/clean-coal/clean-coals-failure-to-launch/comment-page-1/#comment-9 kellermfk Sat, 08 Aug 2009 15:27:48 +0000 http://www.sissenerwrites.com/?p=486#comment-9 Might want to take a look at www.hybridpwr.com for a technology that dramatically reduces IGCC greenhouse gas emissions to levels where sequestration is not needed. The hybrid-nuclear technology involves the completely unexpected marriage of the helium gas reactor with a combined-cycle plant. If the price of natural gas remains below about $5/mmBTU (where it is at the moment), there is no financial reason to build anything else other than combined-cycle power plants, as observed by Mort. However, the price of natural gas is extremely volatile and more or less tracks the price of oil. If history repeats itself, and it usually does, the price of natural gas will easily triple when world economies recover from the current recession. At such natural gas prices, coal plants are easily the lowest cost power producers -- if we disregard penalties (taxes of some form) on CO2 emissions. Might want to take a look at http://www.hybridpwr.com for a technology that dramatically reduces IGCC greenhouse gas emissions to levels where sequestration is not needed. The hybrid-nuclear technology involves the completely unexpected marriage of the helium gas reactor with a combined-cycle plant.

If the price of natural gas remains below about $5/mmBTU (where it is at the moment), there is no financial reason to build anything else other than combined-cycle power plants, as observed by Mort. However, the price of natural gas is extremely volatile and more or less tracks the price of oil. If history repeats itself, and it usually does, the price of natural gas will easily triple when world economies recover from the current recession. At such natural gas prices, coal plants are easily the lowest cost power producers — if we disregard penalties (taxes of some form) on CO2 emissions.

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